I have been writing about the Effective Demand rule for monetary policy lately. The version that I have been showing uses a labor share anchor, which is a projection of where labor share will be at the natural limit of the business cycle. Labor share has always tended toward its labor share anchor at the end of a business cycle. So the labor share anchor is a measure of the eventual potential in the economy.
Some people may not feel comfortable with the anchor as it is estimated from a trend line of effective labor share. I have another version of the Effective Demand Rule that uses the labor share data that is released by the US Department of Labor: BLS... without converting it to an anchor.
I will show graphs for each version.
First is the graph using the anchor representing the eventual natural potential. Second is the graph using the trending effective labor share. (Effective labor share = Non-farm labor share: Business sector * 0.762) The second graph is a more straight-forward way to measure the base nominal rate underlying the economy.
Since the crisis there is little difference between the two graphs. Yet you will notice some differences. For example, between 1998 and 2004, monetary policy is seen as tighter before and after the 2001 recession. The economy was building slack after 1998 and a lower Fed rate would have been proper. The version above using trending labor share shows that better. Labor share ultimately fell (after 2001 and especially after the crisis) and ate up some of that accumulating slack.
What some call secular stagnation is just the process of labor share falling to eat up excess slack caused by competitively lower labor shares overseas and new productive technology. Should the fall in labor share have been temporary? Did it become an undesired global downward spiral? I think so... If advanced countries could now coordinate a reversal of falling labor share, the aura of secular stagnation would dissipate like a morning fog.
Note: An important thing to realize in the Effective Demand Rule equation is that the only value of labor share that works... is the basic "effective" labor share value used to determine Effective Demand. Thus the accuracy of the Effective Demand Rule (when compared to the actual Fed rate) supports the calculation of the effective labor share, and thus the projection of the Effective Demand limit.
The labor share used in the following graph is based on weighted averages of past quarters. Weighting in this manner gave less overall error than the hp filter.
Here is the equation to weight labor share...
weighted labor share = (7.2*LS of last quarter + 2.5*LS of 2 quarters past)/9.7
Here is a graph just to show the effect of the equation to weight labor share. The orange line is what is used in the 2nd graph above.
You can see that labor share lags behind itself, but the highs and lows are softend a bit. Labor share has to obtained by looking at past quarters where data is available. Data is only available after each quarter ends.