The November unemployment rate came in at 7.0%. This is trending steady.
This graph combines monthly and quarterly data since January 2012. I track the quarterly data for the effective demand research.
The forecast is for the 4th Q of 2013 to be around 7.1%.
Right now the average of October and November is 7.15%. If December has 6.9% unemployment, the 4Q of 2013 will be 7.07%. If December has 7.2%, 4Q of 2013 will be 7.17%.
That is right on schedule. I forecast the effective demand limit to be reached when unemployment is between 6.5% and 7.1% on a quarterly basis. A couple more quarters still to go. Unemployment is trending with real GDP.